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Charleston vs San Diego State Odds

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Charleston is a classic NCAA Tournament 12-seed in almost every way.

As a mid-major program, the Cougars rolled through league play, won 31 games in total and had one of the longest win streaks in the nation when they won 20 straight games.

They’re sure to be a trendy first-round upset pick when they face off against a fellow mid-major in San Diego State, in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday.

The Aztecs were marginally underseeded when comparing their 5-seed to their underlying numbers. San Diego State won both the regular-season and conference tournament crown in the Mountain West.

However, the conference has had its struggles in the actual tournament, and the Aztecs did lose in the first round of the Big Dance in 2021 to Syracuse and 2022 to Creighton despite being a higher seed and favorite in both matchups.

This matchup is intriguing because it’s an ultimate pace clash featuring the run-and-gun Charleston offense that’s 29th in adjusted tempo nationally. San Diego State wants to play in the half-court and is one of the most physically imposing defenses in the entire country.

Charleston wants to shoot a ton of 3s, but SDSU is very effective at matching up on the perimeter.

Although the Cougars will be a popular upset pick in many brackets, the Aztecs caught a favorable matchup here and are undervalued to move into Round 2.

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Charleston’s offense is predicated more around the perimeter than almost any other offense in the country.

The Cougars shoot 3s at the ninth-highest attempt rate in the country, but they’re going to struggle to execute in the half-court against the Aztecs defense.

There’s no clear area where the Cougars offense has an edge over the Aztecs on Thursday. It’s not inside, where Charleston makes up for its shooting efficiency from deep by pulling in a ton of offensive rebounds. San Diego State is a good defensive rebounding team, and it applies a ton of on-ball pressure to disrupt passing lanes and offensive flow.

The Cougars will try to run as much as possible in this matchup, but San Diego State is an elite transition defense. The Aztecs are one of the best at forcing teams to play in the half-court against them. Once in the half-court, Charleston’s offense will face an SDSU defense that allows the 11th-lowest rate of unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s in the entire country.

There’s no glaring weakness for Pat Kelsey’s team, but it also doesn’t have any clear strengths to potentially exploit San Diego State’s talent and physicality.

The biggest question mark for the Aztecs in this tournament is whether or not the offense will go through a prolonged scoring drought that leads to them getting knocked out.

Given how inconsistent the offense is at times, a drought is certainly going to happen at some point. San Diego State saw it happen in the first half of the MWC final against Utah State when the Aztecs went five minutes with one made field goal. Against Boise State, they didn’t make a field goal in the final four minutes of an eventual defeat.

Good rim defenses can absolutely cause problems for the Aztecs. Charleston is marginally above average at guarding the rim, ranking in the 64th percentile, per Synergy.

The Cougars will allow a decent amount of shots and opportunities in the midrange, which is an area the Aztecs like to attack. If the SDSU shooters are going to get chased off the line by Charleston, they’re more than comfortable taking midrange pull-up shots.

That’s the key against Charleston’s defense, as well as using post-up looks to dominate it inside. The Cougars defense grades out really poorly there, and the Aztecs utilize the post more than most teams the Cougars have played this season.

This version of the Aztecs defense doesn’t force as many turnovers as years past, but that also makes them better on the defensive glass. In this matchup, that’s a positive for SDSU.

Based on some underlying numbers, San Diego State is the best 5-seed facing off against the worst 12-seed.

SDSU’s defense has been back to its elite self in the last month, and that will force Charleston to take a lot of difficult and contested 3s. While the Cougars pulled a lot of offensive rebounds down in the weak Colonial, they’ll struggle to replicate that performance against the Aztecs’ physicality and strength inside.

San Diego State has more than enough depth to match and outlast the Cougars, too, even if the game does end up being more up-and-down from a pace perspective.

As bad as the Aztecs have been at closing out games at times, 5.5 points is a bit too short for this matchup. I’d bet the Aztecs at -6 or better.

Charleston played its way into the NCAA tournament for the first time since the 2017-18 season after rolling through the Colonial Athletic Association regular season and then winning the conference tournament It draws a matchup with No. 5 seed San Diego State in the South Region. San Diego State is a small favorite entering the game, looking to win its first NCAA tournament game since 2015.

Tip-off is set for 3:10 p.m. ET on Thursday from Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The game will be broadcast on TruTV.

Charleston likes to play an up-tempo game and is not afraid to let loose from 3-point range, averaging 30.2 3-point attempts per game, the second-highest total in the country (behind only Cornell). The Cougars also boast five players averaging double digits in scoring this season, but they have yet to face a defense as good as San Diego State’s.

The Aztecs are not a particularly dominant team offensively, with only one player (Matt Bradley) averaging double digits in scoring (12.9 per game). As a team, the Aztecs 72.3 points per game is 173rd in the country.

But while San Diego State lacks offensive firepower (and star power), it more than makes up for it with depth (eight different players average at least 15 minutes per game and score at least six points per game) and smothering defense. In 11 games since the start of February, the Aztecs have not allowed more than 71 points and only twice allowed more than 66. In four of those games, they have limited opponents to under 55 points.

What: South Region, first round

Tipoff time: 3:10 p.m. ET Thursday

TV: truTV

Location: Amway Center, Orlando

San Diego State vs. Charleston odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live.

Expert picks

Model projection: San Diego State by 1.6, total 138.4

See Austin Mock’s best bets for the first round

Players to watch

Matt Bradley, senior guard, All-MWC first team Nathan Mensah, senior forward, MWC Defensive Player of the Year

Dalton Bolon, graduate guard, All-CAA first team

More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of Matt Bradley: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

Game: Charleston Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs

Location: Amway Center in Orlando, FL

TV: truTV

Odds/Point Spread: Charleston (+5)

The Charleston Cougars (31-3) are headed to Amway Center on Thursday where they will try to beat the San Diego State Aztecs (27-6). San Diego State opens this matchup as 5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The total is 141.5.

The Charleston Cougars stepped onto the hardwood against UNC Wilmington and went home with a win by a final score of 63-58 in their last contest. Charleston ended the game having earned a 40.4% FG percentage (21 of 52) and converted 6 of their 26 3-point shots. From the charity stripe, the Cougars buried 15 of 20 shots for a percentage of 75.0%. In regard to grabbing rebounds, they collected 27 with 9 of them being on the offensive end. They also doled out 8 dimes for the matchup while forcing the opposition into 15 turnovers and earning 10 steals. When discussing defense, Charleston allowed their opponent to shoot 40.7% from the floor on 22 out of 54 shooting. UNC Wilmington earned 11 assists and had 5 steals for this contest. Moreover, UNC Wilmington snagged 28 rebounds (9 offensive, 19 defensive), but wasn't able to record a rejection. UNC Wilmington walked away from this one shooting 78.6% at the charity stripe by burying 11 of their 14 tries. They also made 3 of 14 tries from long range. In the matter of personal fouls, the Cougars ended up with 16 and UNC Wilmington totaled 15 personal fouls.

Ryan Larson is a player who was a factor for the matchup. He racked up 23 points on 9 of 16 shooting. He played 34 mins played and snagged 3 boards. He finished the contest at 56.3% from the floor and also dished out 1 assist.

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Charleston comes into this game with a win-loss record of 31-3 for the campaign. They are turning it over 12.0 times per game and as a unit they commit 16.8 personal fouls per contest. As a team, Charleston is pulling in 40.5 boards per contest and has 469 assists this season, which ranks 84th in the nation in terms of passing the ball. The Cougars are shooting 33.4% on shots from 3-point land (343 of 1027) and 74.1% from the charity stripe. They average 80.8 pts per contest (14th in D-1) while shooting 43.8% from the field.

On defense, the Cougars are forcing 13.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 18.3 fouls. They are 151st in college basketball in giving up assists to the opposition with 398 conceded on the season. The Cougars defensively are giving up a shooting percentage of 43.1% (875 of 2,029) and they surrender 33.8 boards per contest as a unit. They relinquish 30.7% on 3-point shots and they are 98th in D-1 in points per game allowed (67.4).

For their last game, the San Diego State Aztecs walked away with a victory by a final of 62-57 when they faced Utah State. In reference to rebounds, San Diego State allowed Utah State to snag 37 in total (10 on the offensive glass). They wrapped up this game 16.7% from beyond the perimeter by going 4 of 24 and finished the contest at 7 of 14 at the free throw line (50.0%). The Aztecs allowed Utah State to bury 23 of 62 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 37.1% for the matchup. When the final whistle blew, the Aztecs finished 20 out of 63 from the floor which gave them a rate of 31.7%. When talking about 3-point attempts, San Diego State converted 2 out of 19 attempts (10.5%). They were able to bury 20 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 76.9%. Utah State had 21 fouls for the matchup which got the Aztecs to the charity stripe for a total of 26 shots. They also gave up possession of the ball 7 times, while recording 4 steals in this matchup. The Aztecs pulled down 29 defensive boards and 13 offensive boards totaling 42 in this game.

Matt Bradley ended up being a factor for the Aztecs for this game. He tallied 16 points in his 26 mins of playing time, but didn't record an assist. He buried 6 of 14 in the matchup giving him a rate of 42.9%, and had 2 rebounds.

San Diego State has a record of 27-6 on the year. The Aztecs are responsible for committing 16.1 personal fouls per contest and they go 73.2% from the charity stripe. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 13.4 times per game (158th in the country) and they lose possession by turning the ball over 11.8 times per game. San Diego State has totaled 2,378 points so far this season (72.1 per contest) and they collect 35.8 rebounds per game. As an offense, the Aztecs are shooting 44.4% from the field, which ranks 191st in D-1.

The San Diego State defense allows 29.3% on shots from beyond the arc (212 of 724) and opponents are knocking down 73.7% of their foul shots. They have surrendered 10.9 assists and 31.3 rebounds on a nightly basis, which is 44th and 34th in college hoops. The Aztecs on defense are ranked 29th in D-1 in PPG allowed with 63.6. They are able to force 13.2 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 41.6% from the field (57th in Division 1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA basketball game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Charleston (+5)

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NORTH CHARLESTON — Heading toward the old Charleston Navy base, Cosgrove and Spruill avenues form a “T,” sending drivers in one of two directions.

A left turn leads toward bustling Park Circle, a part of the city that is filled with locally owned eating and drinking venues like Stems & Skins, The Tattooed Moose, Jackrabbit Filly and Commonhouse Aleworks. Heading right will take you to the Reynolds Avenue restaurant corridor.

That moniker doesn’t exist just yet, but this portion of the city’s Chicora Cherokee neighborhood is in the midst of a transformation that could bolster the area’s independent restaurants.

A large-scale redevelopment on the former Navy base is taking shape nearly two years after plans for more than 1.2 million square feet of offices, homes, shops and restaurants were first detailed.

Covering about 70 acres on and adjacent to the base, the Navy Yard Charleston redevelopment aims to repurpose multiple historic buildings while also constructing new ones, with housing, shopping and destination entertainment as part of the plan. The private development is happening just as the city of North Charleston pursues sweeping redevelopment plans of its own on or near the old footprint.

Though just one independent restaurant is currently serving customers on the base — MOMO, located at the foot of Riverfront Park — a handful of others have recently popped up within eyeshot of this future development.

Three restaurants between Spruill Avenue and the end of Reynolds Avenue overlooking the base — Rebel Taqueria, Maya del Sol Kitchen and Macho Pichu Chicken — opened within the last three years.

“The development is the reason I believe the three of us are here,” said Maya del Sol Kitchen owner Raul Sanchez.

Less than a half-mile away from Sanchez’ Mexican restaurant sits longer tenured local favorite Caribbean Delight, along with Daddy’s Girls Bakery, the newly renovated Starlight Motor Inn and the future site of King BBQ, the highly anticipated Chinese and North Carolina inspired barbecue restaurant from Jackrabbit Filly owners Shuai and Corrie Wang.

Though these destinations cover a small footprint in an area earmarked for massive mixed-use development, they got in on the ground floor of what could soon become a bustling dining and drinking destination.

Getting there first

Longtime Charleston residents remember the days when dining options were sparse on King Street north of Calhoun Street, with the exception of now-shuttered Thai restaurant Basil. But once more eateries came to the area, apartment complexes, retail stores and large employers like Greystar followed.

Two decades later, restaurants have pushed farther north beyond Line Street, with Leon’s Oyster Shop, Maison and Rodney Scott’s BBQ bringing large crowds to Upper King Street, proving there is an appetite for a diverse group of dining venues across the peninsula.

Development can have consequences for the surrounding communities. Property values have in recent years skyrocketed north of Calhoun Street, as several neighborhoods, once predominantly Black, are attracting more and more students, White professionals, investors and developers.

The Charleston peninsula’s Black population hit a 100-year high in 1960 and has been falling ever since, according to Census figures. Between 2010 and 2020, about 5,000 Black residents left the peninsula.

In North Charleston, Liberty Hill, a predominantly African American community that was established by former enslaved people shortly after the Civil War, sits adjacent to Park Circle, which has in the last decade been targeted by developers. Liberty Hill residents have raised concerns about the threat of gentrification in the neighborhood as home prices in Park Circle have skyrocketed in recent years.

Rising real estate prices can also push out small independent restaurants when their leases expire, part of the reason why King Street’s main entertainment district between Calhoun and Spring streets is now dominated by powerful restaurant groups and out-of-town players. With most restaurants signing five- to 10-year leases, this shifting dynamic can take more time to develop than the housing market.

Even if restaurants surrounding the Navy base are faced with rising lease payments in the next decade, Sanchez of Maya del Sol says he’ll be retired by then. With three years left on a five-year lease at 1813 Reynolds Ave., Suite B, Sanchez will likely stick around for one more four- or five-year term before packing up his professional chef’s knives.

Locals in the know visit Maya del Sol for its multi-course evening tasting menu featuring an array of dishes, including old family recipes, that don’t fit into the expected format for a Mexican restaurant. With Sanchez and just one other chef leading the scratch kitchen, Maya del Sol is a neighborhood restaurant through and through, and operating in this corner of North Charleston allows Sanchez to cater to a local crowd.

Like Maya del Sol, Rebel Taqueria has benefitted from the local following it garnered during its food truck days. In 2020, the restaurant took over the space previously occupied by The CODfather, which relocated to North Charleston and added a second location in Summerville. Two years after opening, Rebel Taqueria’s ownership expanded, adding seating to meet a growing demand for the three things Rebel has been known for since its food truck days: tacos, tequila and cold beer.

“(We opened) with the expectation that the neighborhood was going to start off pretty slow. There’s not a lot of housing right around there,” said Lewis Kesaris, chef and owner of Rebel Taqueria. “Getting in there early was our plan, hopefully helping the neighborhood grow around us.”

With flavor-filled fare served in a relaxed environment, Rebel Taqueria is well positioned to handle the neighborhood’s growth. King BBQ, set to open this spring at 2029 Carver Ave., steps away from Reynolds Avenue, is another place that will cater to residents of the redeveloped land on and around the Navy base’s old footprint.

‘We’re a scrappy bunch’

King BBQ’s menu will be unlike other barbecue restaurants in the Lowcountry, with roasted and smoked meats paired with sides that riff on classics; German potato salad and North Carolina red slaw, for instance. It will be a dining destination in and of itself, drawing more attention to the neighborhood.

Developer and president emeritus of the Reynolds Avenue Area Merchants Association Ed Sutton, an Air Force veteran, owns several buildings in the Reynolds Avenue corridor, including the future King BBQ site.

The area has the history to back its future life as a dining district, Sutton said. When the Navy base was active, Reynolds Avenue and the surrounding streets were where soldiers went to eat and drink. Sutton has seen a resurgence of interest in the area among individuals, mainly locals, who believe they can help spur manageable growth.

“We’re a scrappy bunch. We’re upstarts,” said Sutton, discussing those who are committing to redeveloping the area while ensuring it keeps its character. “That’s kind of what the area lends itself to.”

The newest star shining bright over Reynolds and Rivers avenues is the Starlight Motor Inn, a 62-year-old property that underwent an extensive restoration effort by business partners Ham Morrison and Walker Lamond. The renovated hotel, which earned a spot on the National Register of Historic Places in 2020, is now open to the public.

“It’s got a lot of soul and it’s a pretty neat community. Reynolds Avenue is a pretty cool commercial strip,” Morrison said. “It’s got a neighborhood feel, which sets it apart.”

With pink stucco walls, decorative brick and a new marquee sign topped with a star, the Starlight Motor Inn features 51 retro vintage-style guest rooms, a pool and cocktail lounge, with the possibility of a restaurant in the future. Upstairs, the longtime cocktail lounge called the Burgundy Lounge has been brought back to life, complete with a bar and card tables.

The renovated inn fits with existing restaurants in the Reynolds Avenue corridor. In fact, it’s exactly the type of development Sutton envisions surrounding the high-rise buildings earmarked for the old Navy base.

A Charleston-based retail chain will soon arrive in a new market with the anticipated opening of two locations.

Palmetto Moon, a Southern lifestyle retailer marking two decades of rapid growth, will soon have a presence in Kentucky with two new locations set to open in the Bluegrass State this spring, according to a news release.

Palmetto Moon will unveil its first Kentucky store in Lexington on March 25, followed by Louisville on April 8 — marking the retailer’s 40th location across its growing Southeast footprint.

Palmetto Moon’s new Kentucky stores will be located at:

Upon debut, Palmetto Moon will operate locations in seven states that include Kentucky, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama and Tennessee.

“It’s an honor to build on twenty years of incredible momentum as we open our doors to Kentucky,” says Amber Dube, Palmetto Moon’s executive vice president and chief brand officer. “We’ve seen firsthand how our brand resonates with customers here who shop our thoughtfully curated online storefront, and as a brand grounded in community, we’re especially thrilled to bring the authentic Palmetto Moon experience to life with our new locations in Lexington and Louisville.”

Palmetto Moon is known for its focus on customer service and locally inspired shopping experience for all ages that celebrates the Southern lifestyle, the release stated. Unlike mass merchants, the retailer hand-picks its showcase of top brands alongside emerging makers and gifts tailored to the community.

The new Lexington and Louisville locations will offer popular brands including YETI, Simply Southern, Bogg Bag, Hey Dude, Southern Marsh, Chubbies, Vineyard Vines and Local Boy Outfitters, as well as up-and-coming brands and Palmetto Moon’s exclusive products, the release stated.

In step with Palmetto Moon’s legacy as a Collegiate destination, both stores will feature custom University of Kentucky collegiate gear and apparel; the Louisville location will also represent University of Louisville. The retailer proudly partners with Kentucky makers such as Bourbon Barrel Foods, Doodles By Rebekah and Bluegrass Brothers, according to the release.

“Lexington and Louisville are two vibrant Southern destinations with rich, yet distinct local character that perfectly reflects our homegrown brand,” said Palmetto Moon CEO John Thomas. “We can’t imagine a better introduction to the Bluegrass State as Palmetto Moon celebrates this tremendous growth milestone. From humble beginnings as a kiosk in Charleston, South Carolina, it’s a privilege to offer 40 brick-and mortar locations in seven states and counting.”